Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing the world today. As oceans continue to warm, Iceland will be more vulnerable to global warming and extreme weather events. Iceland is also at risk of more frequent landslides, ocean acidification, and changes in ocean currents. A recent UN report has highlighted the effects of climate change on Iceland, and its Environment Minister has urged governments to take action. The report, produced by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), categorizes the effects of climate change and outlines the impact it will have on Iceland.
Sea level rise
Iceland’s glaciers have been slowly melting and uplifting the land, contributing to sea level rise. Located close to the Arctic Circle, the island has glaciers covering over a tenth of its land area. Despite its northern location, Iceland is also facing the effects of climate change on its southern regions. The country is addressing the changing landscape as a national priority.
Climate change causes sea level rise due to two factors: the addition of water from melting glaciers and the expansion of seawater. The rising seawater exacerbates coastal erosion and increases storm surge. Warming air temperatures also contribute to increased intensity of coastal storms. Scientists have forecast that Iceland’s sea levels will rise by about six feet within the next century. A recent study from the University of Arizona and the Iceland Meteorological Office shows how rapid climate change is already affecting the region.
Rising sea levels will increase the risk of flooding in Iceland, which is already a major issue. Rising water levels could force many people to leave their homes. Consequently, the government would have to spend money finding them new homes. Additionally, rising waters may prevent fishing boats from leaving the harbor. This would disrupt the country’s economy, which relies on fishing to generate about 11% of GDP.
Recent warming in Iceland is accompanied by the melting of Iceland’s glaciers. The rapid melting of Iceland’s glaciers is one of the major causes of sea level rise. Since the early 1990s, Iceland’s glaciers have lost 9.5 Gt per year on average. This is significantly higher than the global average.
Glacial recession
The government of Iceland has published the 2020 Climate Action Plan, which outlines 48 measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon capture. While it does not explicitly mention glacial recession, it is the most comprehensive domestic response to climate change to date. It has also allocated $372 million to implement these measures, about one percent of Iceland’s GDP.
The most recent data on Iceland’s glacial recession shows that glaciers have retreated approximately two hundred and fifty metres over the past few decades. The majority of glaciers reached their maximum Holocene extent in the late 19th century. Then, a period of ice growth occurred in the 1960s, which was subsequently followed by a period of retreat. By the late 1990s, 90% of Iceland’s outlet glaciers were in retreat or thinning.
The rate of glacier retreat at Skalafellsjokull was the highest in the 1930s and 1940s. The rate of retreat was even more pronounced in the mid-1950s and early 1960s. However, after that, the rate of glacial retreat was sporadic.
The accelerating melting of Iceland’s glaciers has led to an increase in sea levels. While the increase in sea level is expected to be significant, the rise in sea level is not uniform across the world. Iceland has less glacial mass than the Marshall Islands, which contributes less to the rise in sea level. Iceland’s coastal residents and fishermen are grappling with the ramifications of rising sea levels.
The most recent period of ice-frontal retreat corresponds with an increase in SST anomalies of +0.75 degrees Celsius. This is similar to earlier glacier recession periods, which were associated with SST anomalies of 0.20 degrees and +0.40 degrees Celsius. During the 1951-1956 period, three out of six years show negative SST anomalies while the rest show positive anomalies.
Volcanic eruptions
Iceland’s Fagradalsfjall volcano has begun erupting again after eight months of relative slumber. Luckily, it has not affected air traffic or people. However, the eruption came after several days of earthquake activity. The volcano is located in an area prone to earthquakes. The last eruption was in 2011, and it lasted for six months.
Researchers are investigating whether climate change is altering the eruptive processes. This includes changes in the height of the ash plume and grain size distribution. They also want to better understand how the ash disperses into the atmosphere. To do so, they are using advanced climate models developed by the UK Met Office.
Although we are largely to blame for climate change, Iceland’s volcano is actually helping us mitigate its impact on the climate. It can hold as much as 300,000 tons of CO2 for eternity. In fact, it’s so effective at capturing CO2 that it is now used in a carbon-capture project. This technology could have a positive impact on Iceland’s volcanoes.
There are several factors affecting Iceland’s volcanic activity. First, deglaciation in Iceland has increased the amount of magma, which increases the likelihood of eruptions. Then, the change in surface pressure also changes the stress relationships between the upper mantle and crust. This, in turn, may alter the composition and timing of volcanic eruptions.
A recent study found that the interval between a large Icelandic eruption and a climate change event is roughly 600 years. This suggests that the recent warming of the climate could cause a similar timeframe. However, Iceland’s volcanic system is still recovering from the Little Ice Age that occurred from 1500 to 1850. In addition, glaciers are melting in Iceland due to a combination of natural and human-induced climate warming.
Tourism
There is no doubt that Iceland’s tourism industry is experiencing tremendous growth. The number of visitors to the island has quadrupled over the last decade. The problem, however, is that the government has failed to regulate tourism or invest in infrastructure. In addition, there is no long-term planning or coordination among industry players. Some of the problems include inadequate signage and inadequate protection of sensitive mosses.
One of the biggest problems facing the Iceland tourism industry is climate change. The glaciers play a vital role in reducing earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and if they melt away, this would release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The 2009 Eyjafjallajokull eruption cut off air travel from Europe for weeks, but it also planted the idea of Iceland in the minds of travelers. In addition to reducing earthquakes, glaciers also provide freshwater for rivers, which is essential for tourism.
As the economy has grown, Iceland’s tourism sector has grown, especially in the last two years. Over the past decade, the number of rooms at hotels in Iceland has grown nine percent and there are another seven hotels in the pipeline. However, uncertainty over the future of the economy and economic growth are making the industry less confident. In addition, Iceland’s laws against homesharing and Airbnb have reduced the number of homes available for rent in the capital city. As a result, housing in Reykjavik is more expensive than in other areas of the country. However, the growth of tourism has been a boon for many smaller towns in Iceland.
While the overall tourism industry in Iceland is not in a crisis, the number of tourists in Iceland has decreased compared to last year. The tourism sector accounts for around eight percent of the country’s GDP, and it employs nearly 30,000 people during its peak summer season. However, the country has yet to see the full picture, as Iceland is entering its shoulder season.
Economy
In addition to affecting Iceland’s economy directly, climate change is likely to have indirect consequences. In the case of Greenland, business disruption is likely to be caused by infrastructure deficiencies, such as lack of connectivity, and the suspension of Arctic-focused fieldwork. In this paper, we discuss these and other implications, and suggest future research.
Iceland’s government, which has a population of around 350,000 people, has taken steps to reduce its carbon emissions. Its primary sources of electricity are hydropower and geothermal energy, but major industries such as tourism and agriculture contribute almost one-third of Iceland’s carbon dioxide emissions. Although Iceland is experiencing more effects of climate change than most nations, the country is working to turn these factors to its economic advantage.
As temperatures rise, so too do Iceland’s glaciers. Currently, the country’s glaciers keep the volcanoes from erupting, but scientists say the country could face more volcanic eruptions in the future. To combat this, Iceland is planning to transition to electric vehicles in the next order of business and accelerate its reforestation programs. In addition, Iceland has continued to experience extreme weather by local standards. In 2016, the country recorded 59 days with temperatures above 20 degrees Celsius, and the country has also seen more forest fires and mudslides.
The impact on tourism is particularly severe, and the country’s governments are forced to borrow to support businesses. This can cause long-term systemic risks for the economy. Furthermore, increased tax burdens can constrain macroeconomic performance. Further, the government’s reliance on tourism has adverse systemic effects for Greenland’s Indigenous Peoples, who sell their traditional products to tourists.
